Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

93 0x9356…ecdd other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$104 (+31%) realized +$104 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate79%11W / 3L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+17.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+29.3%	+17.0%	79%	64%	+24.1%
≤30d	14	+29.3%	+17.0%	79%	64%	+24.1%
≤90d	14	+29.3%	+17.0%	79%	64%	+24.1%
all	14	+29.3%	+17.0%	79%	64%	+24.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.0%	64%	+24.1%
10%	+5.8%	57%	+12.3%
15%	-4.4%	50%	+1.4%
20%	-13.8%	21%	-8.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +22% → late +37% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$1 · ×17.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×64.74 per $1 lost it wins $64.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized+$104

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses11 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage7d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score	Yes	54¢	55¢	$35	$36	+$1 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$51	+$29	+57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$20	−$1	-4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$20	+$5	+24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$31	+$20	+64%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$30	+$22	+71%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 24	$25	+$1	+4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	+$4	+44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$15	+$7	+48%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	Jun 22	$7	+$1	+10%
Norway leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$5	$0	-7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 22	$3	$0	-11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$31	+$4	+11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	+$5	+50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$10	+$5	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$35	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	63¢	$51	25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	60¢	$19	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	35h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	100¢	$25	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	80¢	$20	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$15	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	41¢	$14	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$15	2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	58¢	$30	3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	SELL DR Congo	68¢	$26	3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	63¢	$10	3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	65¢	$15	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	65¢	$15	4d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	SELL REKONIX	36¢	$8	4d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	BUY REKONIX	19¢	$2	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	4d
Norway leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	33¢	$5	4d
Norway leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	34¢	$5	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	48¢	$3	5d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	BUY REKONIX	43¢	$5	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$35	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	52¢	$3	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$31	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$15	6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.38 · official $65.39 (match) · 34 history records