Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
93 0x9355…23e0 crypto 1031 markets active 10h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$104 (+1%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%976W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$33
14 days+$80
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 2% -7.7%
≤30d 1031 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 1031 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.9%
all 1031 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 5% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses976 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1031 / 1031
History coverage22d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1031 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $9 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2007 history records