Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9355…ca67 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$9 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$104
14 days−$23
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$340
sports 11% +$304
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 18% -43.5%
≤30d 61 +46.9% +32.9% 25% 25% -20.0%
≤90d 61 +46.9% +32.9% 25% 25% -20.0%
all 61 +46.9% +32.9% 25% 25% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.9% 25% -20.0%
10% +20.2% 25% -27.6%
15% +8.6% 25% -34.6%
20% -2.0% 23% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +139% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$10 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage25d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$10 +485%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $17 −$15 -89%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $80 −$54 -68%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +148%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -31%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $11 −$8 -70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +64%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +169%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -61%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -88%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$32 +3105%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +189%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 +$47 +116%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$72 +339%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $92 1h
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 6h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 6h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $3 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 27h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 46h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 46h
Curaçao leading at halftime? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 47h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 47h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.68 · official $84.68 (match) · 107 history records