Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9353…5eef sports 362 markets active 8h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-4%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%190W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$79
crypto 42% −$139
politics 3% −$8
economics 1% −$1
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -28.0% -34.9% 20% 20% -43.8%
≤30d 21 -13.4% -21.6% 48% 43% -13.3%
≤90d 55 -4.7% -13.7% 62% 51% -14.7%
all 362 -5.5% -14.5% 52% 50% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 50% -15.3%
10% -22.7% 44% -23.4%
15% -30.2% 36% -30.8%
20% -37.0% 26% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses190 / 172
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)362 / 362
History coverage600d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 362 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 $0 -6%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 +$13 +259%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +167%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $13 +$1 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 +$1 +69%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1 $0 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2 +$1 +40%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $9 +$4 +42%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline May 24 $2 +$1 +44%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 +$1 +58%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $50 +$5 +11%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline May 16 $176 +$21 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $260 −$98 -38%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 14? May 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 14 $535 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $671 −$32 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14? May 14 $19 −$7 -35%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 12? May 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline May 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $1 +$1 +84%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $4 +$1 +26%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $2 $0 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $1 +$1 +62%
76ers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $5 +$1 +23%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $465 +$12 +2%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $1 −$1 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $3 $0 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $1 +$1 +49%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $4 +$2 +38%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $13 +$2 +18%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $7 +$5 +67%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 32h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 32h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 44h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 44h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 44h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $3 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 90¢ $13 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $1 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 58¢ $1 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $1 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 70¢ $2 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 70¢ $7 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 67¢ $2 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline SELL Knicks 100¢ $2 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 67¢ $2 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 62¢ $1 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 89¢ $50 29d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline SELL Spurs 97¢ $197 35d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 85¢ $176 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? SELL Yes 52¢ $163 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $344 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 791 history records