Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9353…87ec crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%46W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$5
crypto 18% +$2
other 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.2% -9.4% 84% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses46 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage522d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 04 $73 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 03 $63 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $27 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 02 $10 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $5,316 −$5 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Funeriu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 22 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 30d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 99¢ $17 61d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $73 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 90d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 120d
Will Solana reach $170 in February? BUY No 100¢ $57 122d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $43 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $8 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $16 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $68 182d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 211d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $63 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $27 240d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $54 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 271d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $49 272d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 301d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $59 302d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 332d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $69 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 362d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.77 · official $88.77 (match) · 118 history records