Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9353…5bb5 crypto 1029 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate74%760W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$18
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$17
other 27% −$30
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -1.2% -10.6% 84% 13% -9.6%
≤30d 575 -1.5% -10.9% 85% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 1028 -3.9% -13.0% 74% 18% -10.0%
all 1028 -3.9% -13.0% 74% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 18% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 12% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 8% -26.5%
20% -35.9% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses760 / 268
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1028 / 1029
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1028 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 43m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $32 45m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.75 (match) · 3500 history records