Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9352…2227 world 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38,419 (+16%) realized +$38,154 · open +$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%131W / 78L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$946per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$26,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,275
7 days+$27,382
14 days+$28,352
30 days+$34,480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$32,044
other 12% +$1,689
crypto 7% +$1,133
politics 5% +$1,919
finance 2% +$726
tech 0% −$325
sports 0% −$474
economics 0% +$8
culture 0% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +14.1% +3.2% 59% 51% +23.1%
≤30d 131 -7.5% -16.3% 56% 40% +8.7%
≤90d 191 +8.2% -2.1% 61% 40% +8.0%
all 209 +10.4% -0.1% 63% 42% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 42% +8.0%
10% -9.6% 32% -2.3%
15% ← realistic here -18.4% 24% -11.7%
20% -26.4% 18% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$378 vs −$172 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$26,192
Realized+$38,154
Unrealized+$265
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses131 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions46
Markets (closed)209 / 255
History coverage111d
Avg bet$946
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $4,968 $5,312 +$344 (+7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $2,150 $2,123 −$27 (-1%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $1,944 $2,087 +$144 (+7%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 70¢ 99¢ $1,270 $1,807 +$537 (+42%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $1,550 $1,766 +$217 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 34¢ 51¢ $1,137 $1,689 +$552 (+49%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,541 $1,554 +$14 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,470 $1,472 +$2 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $968 $1,207 +$240 (+25%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $840 $860 +$20 (+2%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $679 $770 +$91 (+13%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 55¢ 74¢ $547 $743 +$195 (+36%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $630 $524 −$106 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 91¢ 97¢ $455 $483 +$28 (+6%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 86¢ 96¢ $397 $446 +$49 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 15¢ $1,278 $424 −$854 (-67%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $229 $392 +$163 (+71%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $376 $390 +$14 (+4%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 33¢ $284 $326 +$42 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $169 $302 +$133 (+79%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $267 $242 −$25 (-9%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 23¢ 71¢ $70 $211 +$142 (+204%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 73¢ 88¢ $105 $128 +$23 (+22%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 19¢ 7¢ $343 $126 −$217 (-63%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 64¢ 80¢ $89 $110 +$22 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $588 −$327 -56%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $28 +$14 +49%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 17 $851 +$73 +9%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 17 $862 +$41 +5%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 17 $304 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $2,219 −$67 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $155 −$140 -90%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $1,670 +$859 +52%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $2,291 +$2,221 +97%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2,119 −$14 -1%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 16 $377 −$370 -98%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $40 −$17 -42%
Will Trump say "Gay" in June? Jun 15 $38 −$14 -36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 15 $853 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $130 +$24 +18%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $157 +$626 +398%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $539 +$227 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20,195 +$11,235 +56%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $356 +$90 +25%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,575 +$510 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $278 +$75 +27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $1,809 +$877 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3,531 +$2,676 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $910 +$531 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $2,285 +$1,317 +58%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $8,072 +$3,911 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14,565 +$6,632 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $4,588 −$251 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $220 −$218 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,264 −$161 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,653 −$296 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6,221 −$2,681 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $813 −$813 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $204 +$48 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $649 +$351 +54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,009 +$900 +89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $206 −$124 -60%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $93 +$196 +209%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $788 −$559 -71%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $2,695 +$138 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $86 −$86 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 09 $288 −$288 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 09 $170 −$170 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4,233 +$42 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,855 −$308 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $615 +$66 +11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $145 +$70 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $901 −$484 -54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2,738 +$699 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $29 39m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $2 48m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $3 49m
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 76¢ $354 49m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $519 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 51¢ $13 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 64¢ $389 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $205 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $55 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $290 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $475 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $41 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $138 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $264 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $220 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $308 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $264 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $166 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $151 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $34 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $171 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $633 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,192.19 · official $26,191.96 (match) · 3264 history records