Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9351…9e4d
world · 77 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,207,143 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,202,098 · open +$2,609
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,558,846
Realized+$1,202,098
Unrealized+$2,609
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses38 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions37
Markets (closed)40 / 77
History coverage19d
Avg bet$59,991
Trades / day185.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 37 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$473
7 days+$1,196
14 days+$1,186,591
30 days+$1,202,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 99¢ 100¢ $130,664 $130,958 +$293 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 99¢ $74,285 $74,176 −$110 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $69,499 $69,445 −$54 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $64,870 $65,082 +$212 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $57,891 $59,730 +$1,839 (+3%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $59,507 $59,639 +$131 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $59,475 $59,610 +$135 (+0%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $59,311 $59,100 −$211 (-0%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $58,409 $58,620 +$211 (+0%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $58,576 $58,530 −$46 (-0%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $58,246 $58,410 +$164 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $58,430 $58,380 −$50 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $56,992 $57,960 +$968 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $57,971 $57,780 −$191 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $57,000 $57,660 +$660 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $56,773 $56,850 +$77 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 91¢ $57,879 $54,840 −$3,039 (-5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $52,992 $52,751 −$241 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 99¢ $49,180 $49,058 −$122 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $46,379 $46,746 +$367 (+1%)
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $41,609 $41,987 +$379 (+1%)
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $38,178 $38,567 +$388 (+1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $35,237 $35,182 −$55 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $34,211 $34,346 +$135 (+0%)
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $32,057 $32,320 +$264 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $68,745 +$344 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $1,090 +$3 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 12 $287 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $7,881 +$26 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $16,226 +$99 +1%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $4,977 +$2 +0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $3,601 +$7 +0%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $56,120 +$236 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $59,608 +$392 +1%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 06 $9,828 +$26 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1,708 +$2 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $64,256 +$61 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 05 $74,357 +$421 +1%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 04 $59,415 +$585 +1%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $44,694 +$15,306 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $927,883 +$2,421 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $59,120 +$820 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $36,400 +$23 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $130,822 +$228,405 +175%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $43,759 +$98 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $300,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37,610 +$75 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $75,292 +$165,212 +219%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32,666 +$419,972 +1286%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $51,902 +$19,883 +38%
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $526 +$1,680 +319%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May Jun 01 $954 +$19,609 +2056%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,688 +$41,815 +432%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $212,427 +$4,977 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $89,844 +$256,950 +286%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $4,532 +$83 +2%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 20 May 31 $244 +$1,977 +812%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? May 31 $2,361 +$1,462 +62%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 30 $904 +$2,957 +327%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 May 30 $1,098 +$664 +60%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 29 $5,633 +$14,689 +261%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5,291 +$670 +13%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 27 $3,348 +$24 +1%
SAVE Act becomes law by May 31, 2026? May 26 $991 $0 +0%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,262 +$123 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$1,126,758
crypto 20% +$22,030
tech 15% +$1,453
politics 13% +$36,967
other 10% +$17,125
economics 8% +$268
finance 0% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 100¢ $16,148 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 100¢ $567 2m
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $14,714 3m
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,998 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 100¢ $11,885 4m
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,992 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $4,882 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,793 5m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $5,622 8m
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $17,973 8m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 100¢ $16,838 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 100¢ $7,580 11m
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $25,637 11m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 100¢ $2,321 13m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 100¢ $4,644 13m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $8,603 14m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $11,672 14m
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $27,242 14m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $9,990 16m
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,990 17m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $1,094 19m
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,093 19m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,722 9h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 13h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $507 13h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,627 13h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $263 13h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $286 13h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $148 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $512 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+134.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 40 +158.6% +134.0% 95% 38% +33.8%
≤90d 40 +158.6% +134.0% 95% 38% +33.8%
all 40 +158.6% +134.0% 95% 38% +33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover185.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +134.0% 38% +33.8%
10% +111.6% 35% +21.0%
15% ← realistic here +91.2% 32% +9.3%
20% +72.4% 30% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,558,846.37 · official $1,558,846.37 (match) · 3500 history records