Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x934d…f700
other · 36 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$94 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$94 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses30 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage591d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 5 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Israel strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Feb 04 $30 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $4 +$1 +15%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $20 +$1 +4%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $175 +$7 +4%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Josh Allen be the Top Fantasy Quarterback of the 2025-26 NFL Regu Jan 06 $4 $0 +5%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 05 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 04 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 04 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 04 $81 +$1 +2%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 04 $82 +$1 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Dec 30 $50 +$3 +5%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 18 $7 $0 +5%
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Dec 04 $1 $0 +24%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $112 +$11 +10%
US bank failure by November 30? Dec 01 $130 +$5 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Nov 11 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 07 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland mayoral race? Apr 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 18 $95 +$4 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $72 +$37 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$28
politics 22% +$46
world 13% +$4
tech 12% +$12
sports 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 39m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 41m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 41m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 31h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 95d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 126d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $1 126d
Israel strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 135d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 96¢ $20 138d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 141d
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $83 151d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 158d
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $92 158d
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 158d
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $81 165d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $51 165d
Will Josh Allen be the Top Fantasy Quarterback of the 2025-26 NFL Regu BUY Yes 95¢ $4 177d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? BUY No 95¢ $50 177d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 184d
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $82 184d
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers BUY Maple Leafs 81¢ $1 192d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 91¢ $98 198d
US bank failure by November 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 199d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 91¢ $14 199d
US bank failure by November 30? BUY No 96¢ $80 200d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +22.7% +11.0% 80% 40% -0.8%
≤30d 5 +22.7% +11.0% 80% 40% -0.8%
≤90d 5 +22.7% +11.0% 80% 40% -0.8%
all 31 +10.2% -0.3% 97% 23% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 23% -3.3%
10% -9.8% 13% -12.6%
15% -18.5% 10% -21.0%
20% -26.5% 6% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.04 · official $27.04 (match) · 80 history records