Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

93 0x934a…3a2f sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$66 (-57%) realized −$49 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%1W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day7.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-55.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-50.6%	-55.3%	14%	14%	-83.5%
≤30d	7	-50.6%	-55.3%	14%	14%	-83.5%
≤90d	7	-50.6%	-55.3%	14%	14%	-83.5%
all	7	-50.6%	-55.3%	14%	14%	-83.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-55.3%	14%	-83.5%
10%	-59.6%	14%	-85.1%
15%	-63.5%	14%	-86.5%
20%	-67.1%	14%	-87.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -82% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -51% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.14 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$49

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses1 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day7.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$17	$0	−$17 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$5	+$13	+246%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$70	−$70	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$14	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$3	1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5	BUY Over	4¢	$3	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	19¢	$2	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	15¢	$4	2h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5)	BUY Uruguay	2¢	$1	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5	BUY Over	4¢	$2	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$18	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	28¢	$5	2h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	15¢	$19	44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	22¢	$21	44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$21	44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 16 history records