Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x9343…3f72 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$239 (-2%) realized −$232 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$474
7 days+$418
14 days+$207
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$1,206
sports 9% +$513
other 7% −$7
finance 0% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 29% 29% +18.5%
≤30d 18 -16.8% -24.7% 33% 28% -7.7%
≤90d 70 -23.6% -30.9% 36% 31% -13.6%
all 70 -23.6% -30.9% 36% 31% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 31% -13.6%
10% -37.5% 24% -21.9%
15% -43.5% 21% -29.4%
20% -49.1% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$99 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$232
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage82d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $995 +$474 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $52 −$49 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $53 +$246 +466%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $127 +$13 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $139 −$130 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $97 −$91 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $340 −$326 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $126 −$118 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $110 −$105 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $34 −$32 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $229 +$58 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 24 $101 +$129 +128%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $110 +$241 +220%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $104 +$130 +125%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $454 −$429 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 13 $1,941 +$1,058 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $57 −$54 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $29 +$29 +102%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10? May 06 $78 −$73 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 04 $88 −$83 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 04 $432 +$80 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $115 +$321 +278%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $123 −$115 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $227 −$215 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $227 −$214 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $422 −$400 -95%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $27 −$14 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $112 +$102 +91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $3 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $24 −$21 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $56 −$53 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $85 −$80 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $54 +$35 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $46 −$43 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $49 −$45 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $127 −$118 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 08 $26 +$105 +407%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $26 −$24 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $30 −$2 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $37 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $50 −$47 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,028 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $714 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $754 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $995 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $45 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $152 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 59¢ $299 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 10¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 11, 2PM ET? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $139 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 24¢ $140 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 19¢ $127 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 9¢ $94 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 38¢ $340 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 6¢ $126 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 28¢ $110 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? BUY No 5¢ $34 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? SELL No 54¢ $287 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? BUY No 40¢ $229 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 21¢ $230 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 9¢ $54 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 8¢ $47 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22? SELL Yes 56¢ $351 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 16¢ $110 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 24¢ $234 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.75 · official $992.75 (match) · 131 history records