Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9342…5f01 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-4%) realized −$47 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$50
other 45% −$3
crypto 8% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 67% +1.9%
≤30d 5 +2.8% -7.0% 80% 60% -0.4%
≤90d 8 -10.5% -19.0% 75% 38% -31.2%
all 9 -20.4% -28.0% 67% 33% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 33% -31.6%
10% -34.9% 11% -38.2%
15% -41.2% 11% -44.1%
20% -47.0% 11% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$45 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage94d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $10 $111 +$101 (+1011%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$35 -91%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $71 +$48 +67%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Apr 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Apr 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Apr 16 $7 $0 +1%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 23m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $71 35h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Nuclear TigeRES 85¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 14d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 29d
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 53¢ $100 61d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $7 94d
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 92¢ $2 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.32 · official $111.32 (match) · 19 history records