Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9341…354f
sports · 81 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$43 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$48 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$12
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage106d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 4 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$20
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 77¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 71¢ 76¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Tessa Brockmann 82¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Under 51¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 84¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Over 58¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Over 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 61¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 55¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 62¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Dino Prizmic 81¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Over 53¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Yes 80¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 94¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Over 56¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -91%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $6 +$2 +43%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $4 +$4 +98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +15%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $9 +$4 +44%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $8 −$7 -90%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $3 −$1 -48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $17 −$5 -27%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $2 $0 +27%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $8 +$4 +50%
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $7 +$2 +36%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$1 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$1 +32%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $2 +$1 +81%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $4 +$3 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -24%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$4 +47%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 30 $7 −$7 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$4 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $4 +$1 +13%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3 +$2 +67%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 28 $8 −$4 -50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$3 +61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $8 −$2 -30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$11
world 39% −$31
other 8% −$28
culture 2% −$2
politics 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 94¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 93¢ $3 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $8 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 78¢ $2 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 70¢ $6 9h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson SELL Lucia Bronzetti 99¢ $8 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 11h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Lucia Bronzetti 50¢ $4 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $0 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $2 12h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 77¢ $4 12h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 91¢ $4 12h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 14h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 81¢ $4 15h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 95¢ $4 15h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 77¢ $4 15h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Tessa Brockmann 82¢ $2 15h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Enrico Dalla Valle $1 15h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton SELL Harry Wendelken 38¢ $1 16h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 69¢ $5 17h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 33¢ $3 17h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler BUY Martin Landaluce 69¢ $3 17h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 66¢ $8 17h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Harry Wendelken 71¢ $3 18h
Set Handicap: Shevchenko (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) SELL Shevchenko 100¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +1.7% -7.9% 68% 50% -12.4%
≤30d 63 -12.2% -20.6% 56% 37% -19.8%
≤90d 77 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 36% -17.0%
all 77 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 36% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 36% -17.0%
10% -27.7% 30% -24.9%
15% -34.7% 19% -32.2%
20% -41.1% 12% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.58 · official $11.58 (match) · 189 history records