Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9341…d75f crypto 1704 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-1%) realized −$112 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1669W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day87.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$69
14 days−$106
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$28
other 7% −$29
sports 3% −$55
world 1% −$2
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 403 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 1703 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 1703 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -10.5%
all 1703 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1669 / 34
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1703 / 1704
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day87.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 36¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $17 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 2h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 28¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 34¢ $17 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 5h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 6h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.75 · official $17.75 (match) · 3500 history records