Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
93 0x9340…745d other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,466 (-1%) realized −$1,466 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$892per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$16
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,355
politics 32% −$49
sports 14% −$55
world 3% −$15
economics 2% −$2
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -1.4% -10.8% 4% 0% -10.7%
all 144 -1.5% -10.9% 15% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 8% -10.6%
10% -19.4% 8% -19.1%
15% -27.2% 8% -26.9%
20% -34.3% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,246) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$796
Realized−$1,466
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage152d
Avg bet$892
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $797 $796 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,231 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,203 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 12 $2,487 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,265 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $940 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $526 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,340 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,686 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $311 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $503 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,644 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,160 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,903 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,445 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,894 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,635 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $183 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,379 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 21 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? Apr 21 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,232 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,366 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $3,154 −$3 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,336 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,717 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $2,434 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,152 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,365 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,484 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $511 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $512 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $797 28h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $962 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $963 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,201 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,203 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $987 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $988 5d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,035 5d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,037 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $906 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $908 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $938 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $940 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $525 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $526 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $870 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $871 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $987 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $989 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $867 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,089 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,091 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $509 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $510 17d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $508 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $796.29 · official $796.29 (match) · 432 history records