Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x9340…ae1d sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,928 (+1%) realized +$1,928 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,859per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$3,274est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$20,746
other 27% −$1,299
world 1% −$2,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +21.6% +10.0% 31% 28% +12.6%
≤30d 30 +17.5% +6.3% 30% 27% +3.3%
≤90d 30 +17.5% +6.3% 30% 27% +3.3%
all 30 +17.5% +6.3% 30% 27% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 27% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -3.9% 27% -6.6%
15% -13.1% 20% -15.6%
20% -21.7% 20% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$8,059) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +31% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7,317 vs −$2,305 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,928
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3,274
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4,859
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3,078 +$3,769 +122%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $12,308 −$672 -6%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10,195 +$18,082 +177%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9,191 −$320 -4%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 25 $353 −$352 -100%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $925 +$20 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5,144 −$145 -3%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2,052 −$426 -21%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4,078 −$382 -9%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2,043 −$692 -34%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $4,096 −$507 -12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10,153 +$10,234 +101%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,079 −$2,980 -97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $5,134 −$832 -16%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $2,052 −$653 -32%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $2,049 −$129 -6%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $8,163 +$16,674 +204%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $14,939 −$6,668 -45%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2,053 −$2,000 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $6,121 −$6,121 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,049 −$1,860 -91%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2,051 +$11,269 +549%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 22 $4,109 +$992 +24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,059 +$577 +28%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,024 +$4,239 +414%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $3,062 −$198 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,054 −$2,000 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8,260 −$8,059 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,050 −$1,798 -88%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $11,835 −$11,615 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $1,736 39m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan $1,182 51m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $28,277 51m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $5,111 54m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 27¢ $3,149 55m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 28¢ $4,306 57m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 12¢ $5,131 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 13¢ $3,078 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10,195 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3,078 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $2,759 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $3,064 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 14¢ $2,998 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $2,049 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $2,049 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $1,575 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $2,758 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $1,779 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $2 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $144 2h
Tunisia leading at halftime? SELL Yes $698 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $4,999 2h
Tunisia leading at halftime? SELL Yes $247 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $1 2h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes $514 2h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes $103 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $0 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $0 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $0 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records