Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x933f…3827 crypto 1227 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$282 (-3%) realized −$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate83%1017W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$68
sports 20% −$86
other 14% −$45
weather 1% −$13
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 226 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 1227 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 5% -11.2%
all 1227 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 5% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 2% -19.7%
15% -28.5% 2% -27.5%
20% -35.5% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1017 / 210
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1227 / 1227
History coverage74d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Flyers 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Utah Utah 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? No 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $20 −$15 -77%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL No 23¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $21 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 93¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY No 93¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 93¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records