Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x933f…1540 sports 73 markets active 6h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,845 (-2%) realized −$11,088 · open +$243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%43W / 29L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,853per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1,165est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,733
7 days+$10,559
14 days+$14,495
30 days+$14,495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% +$23,461
crypto 23% +$703
other 19% −$41,384
finance 19% +$4,320
politics 10% −$1,352
world 4% +$2,090
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +33.1% +20.4% 91% 73% +17.1%
≤30d 13 +26.4% +14.3% 85% 69% +22.6%
≤90d 44 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 39% +1.1%
all 72 -2.5% -11.8% 60% 33% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 33% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 22% -20.0%
15% -27.9% 18% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$14,331) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,522 vs −$2,684 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$1,243
Realized−$11,088
Unrealized+$243
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses43 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,165
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage653d
Avg bet$7,853
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 72¢ $1,000 $1,243 +$243 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3,154 −$3,100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,873 +$1,326 +71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4,488 +$4,386 +98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $3,378 +$1,121 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2,573 +$34 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$100 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1,930 +$169 +9%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $726 +$604 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,186 +$540 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12,321 +$2,119 +17%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,787 +$3,259 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,992 +$3,937 +79%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1,280 +$1 +0%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 06 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-10? May 06 $3 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 06 $4,540 +$320 +7%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 05 $904 +$164 +18%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 05 $3,900 −$664 -17%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 May 05 $737 +$37 +5%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 05 $68 $0 -0%
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 05 $29 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 04 $7,702 +$325 +4%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 May 03 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) May 03 $28,828 +$2,761 +10%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 01 $41,619 +$464 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $1,655 +$30 +2%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $988 +$666 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $22,833 +$533 +2%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 27 $993 +$288 +29%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $8,267 +$6,202 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $902 −$902 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5 Apr 20 $2,817 −$2,817 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $996 −$996 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 20 $961 −$961 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $634 −$634 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Apr 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $8,148 +$6,279 +77%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $16,895 +$6,164 +36%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $17,423 −$528 -3%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Apr 06 $15,521 +$260 +2%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $15,514 +$1,649 +11%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Mar 18 $1,559 +$3,223 +207%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Mar 18 $18,184 −$18,170 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 16 $14,486 +$1,028 +7%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $9,692 +$4,794 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 14 $15,463 −$5,770 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 2? Mar 03 $15,434 +$29 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3,154 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $860 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $1,012 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,012 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 50¢ $4,488 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $4,499 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 76¢ $1,550 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 73¢ $1,828 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $389 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1,018 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $518 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $518 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $513 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $495 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $505 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $597 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $511 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $318 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $341 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $186 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $100 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $207 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $26 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $200 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $270 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 50¢ $726 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,242.82 · official $1,242.82 (match) · 386 history records