Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x933c…8ee9 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 35L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$2
other 32% +$4
politics 20% +$3
crypto 5% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +1.2% -8.5% 23% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 13 +1.2% -8.5% 23% 8% -9.0%
all 54 +1.0% -8.6% 35% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.03 per $1 lost it wins $4.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage372d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $74 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $33 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $32 +$5 +14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $8 $0 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $41 +$4 +10%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $6 $0 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 10 $6 $0 +4%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 27 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 04 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $20 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $10 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $31 12h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $28 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $29 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $26 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $17 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $13 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $7 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $29 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records