Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9334…32da sports 1210 markets active 0h ago coverage 251d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 250d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,507 (-5%) realized −$3,512 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%708W / 500L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$186
14 days−$129
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$2,615
crypto 6% −$197
other 3% −$901
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 46% -17.4%
≤30d 489 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 46% -13.9%
≤90d 489 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 46% -13.9%
all 1208 -1.9% -11.2% 59% 54% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 54% -14.0%
10% -19.7% 46% -22.2%
15% -27.5% 32% -29.7%
20% -34.6% 21% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$45 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$3,512
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses708 / 500
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1208 / 1210
History coverage251d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 6¢ 24¢ $5 $20 +$15 (+292%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$14 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $93 −$79 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$14 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$27 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$29 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$12 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$10 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$11 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $32 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $13 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $24 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.65 · official $22.98 · 3480 history records