Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
93 0x9333…3067 crypto 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,902 (+6%) realized +$1,902 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%103W / 46L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$1,394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,432
other 0% −$10
sports 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +43.3% +29.7% 86% 71% +9.3%
≤30d 149 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 56% -5.5%
≤90d 149 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 56% -5.5%
all 149 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 56% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 56% -5.5%
10% -20.5% 46% -14.5%
15% -28.2% 26% -22.8%
20% -35.3% 19% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$109 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,902
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses103 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage29d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$23 +90%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $43 +$30 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $99 −$57 -57%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 +$47 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $99 −$97 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 05 $98 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 05 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$57 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$62 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 04 $18 +$15 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 04 $42 +$49 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 04 $108 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 04 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 04 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $102 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 03 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$62 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $608 +$155 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $1,010 −$137 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $814 −$800 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $203 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 03 $205 +$117 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $43 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $43 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $99 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 20h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $99 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 18d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $98 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $100 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $7 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $69 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records