Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9332…a3db sports 1121 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,437 (-11%) realized −$1,328 · open −$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%434W / 657L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$11
14 days+$96
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,287
other 6% −$39
crypto 3% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -1.1% -10.5% 42% 40% -8.8%
≤30d 444 -5.4% -14.4% 44% 42% -9.1%
≤90d 1091 -15.4% -23.4% 40% 39% -18.4%
all 1091 -15.4% -23.4% 40% 39% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 39% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 37% -26.2%
15% -37.5% 35% -33.3%
20% -43.6% 31% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$1,328
Unrealized−$109
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses434 / 657
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1091 / 1121
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1091 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 57¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 59¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+157%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 13¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+151%)
Cucurella: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 54¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+145%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+342%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 60¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 38¢ 12¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 56¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 48¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Yes 30¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Pedri: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 343 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $5 +$22 +422%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $42 +$23 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$23 +208%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +61%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 +$17 +78%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $3 +$3 +95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $10 0m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 22m
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 44m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 44m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 44m
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $5 56m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 20¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 45¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.15 · official $109.15 (match) · 3500 history records