Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9330…b993 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-6%) realized −$110 · open +$72
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$134
other 7% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% -36.7%
≤30d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% -36.7%
≤90d 18 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% -36.7%
all 18 -4.4% -13.5% 39% 39% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% -36.7%
10% -21.8% 39% -42.8%
15% -29.3% 33% -48.3%
20% -36.2% 28% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$38 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 44¢ 92¢ $67 $139 +$72 (+108%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $108 −$106 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$16 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $20 +$8 +41%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 +$36 +172%
Paul Izzo: 4+ saves Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$153 +494%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$25 +165%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$13 +62%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 44¢ $68 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 18¢ $5 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $36 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $36 4h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 26¢ $21 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $30 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $21 11h
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner BUY United States 70¢ $20 11h
Paul Izzo: 4+ saves BUY Yes $5 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $66 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $78 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $31 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 16¢ $2 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 11¢ $4 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $4 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 30¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $11 4d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 72¢ $30 4d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 5d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $20 5d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 81¢ $15 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $20 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $20 5d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.98 · official $138.98 (match) · 39 history records