Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x932a…5977 sports 542 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$315 (-16%) realized −$318 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%281W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$197
14 days−$211
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$269
other 12% −$1
world 2% −$25
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 55% -23.2%
≤30d 240 -12.9% -21.2% 57% 54% -21.2%
≤90d 562 -13.3% -21.5% 50% 48% -25.0%
all 562 -13.3% -21.5% 50% 48% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 48% -25.0%
10% -29.0% 39% -32.2%
15% -35.9% 30% -38.7%
20% -42.2% 21% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses281 / 281
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)562 / 542
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 83¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-03-28? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-03-27? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-03-27? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Greece win on 2026-03-27? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -200%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-03-27? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-16? Jun 15 $4 −$8 -202%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-27? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -200%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Jun 15 $4 −$8 -201%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-16? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -202%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -201%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Jun 15 $15 −$30 -200%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$2 +37%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$2 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -62%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 77¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 69¢ $5 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 63¢ $5 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $5 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $5 14h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $5 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 15¢ $5 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 7¢ $0 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $5 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $5 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 73¢ $5 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 1¢ $5 19h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) SELL Colorado Rockies 13¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 64¢ $5 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $5 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 85¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $5 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL No 4¢ $0 23h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 23h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 67¢ $5 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 24h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 25h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 29¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 73¢ $5 27h
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.45 · official $91.45 (match) · 3500 history records