Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x932a…55c3 sports 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-0%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%310W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$114
other 39% +$16
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 107 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 312 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$67 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses310 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)312 / 314
History coverage193d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: FEC (-1.5) vs mCon esports (+1.5) Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Titan Esports Club (BO1) - CN Leag Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
CDOriente Petrolero vs. Club Blooming: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
CDOriente Petrolero vs. Club Blooming: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
CDOriente Petrolero vs. Club Blooming: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Spread: Club Blooming (-2.5) Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
CDOriente Petrolero vs. Club Blooming: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 30 $70 $0 +0%
Dota 2: NS Club vs by Owl Club - Game 2 Winner May 27 $70 $0 +0%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs TPaBoMaH Club - Game 2 Winner May 27 $69 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Magic - Game 1 Winner May 27 $70 $0 +0%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $70 $0 +0%
Valorant: Grizzly Gang vs LYON - Map 2 Winner May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: Kinoa (-1.5) vs MASQ (+1.5) May 23 $70 $0 +0%
Valorant: Xipto Esports vs 555 (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Group A May 22 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Kinoa vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner May 22 $70 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Cyber Hero (BO3) - MLBB Continental May 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $70 $0 +0%
First Blood in Game 1? May 16 $28 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Huntsmen vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 16 $70 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs ONIC - Game 2 Winner May 16 $70 $0 +0%
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 May 15 $70 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? May 15 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Bushido Wildcats (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Eu May 15 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay - Map 2 Winner May 15 $51 $0 +0%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 14 $60 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: PURE vs VP.Prodigy (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regula May 14 $45 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ENRAGE vs Nerve of Cow (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Re May 14 $68 $0 +0%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 13 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe May 13 $6 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner May 13 $50 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $70 $0 +0%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs Wolves Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $70 $0 +0%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? May 12 $43 $0 +0%
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 12 $70 $0 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 12 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 10 $70 $0 +0%
Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs ENTERPRISE Esports (+1.5) May 09 $50 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 Win May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs Alzon (+1.5) May 08 $70 $0 +0%
Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $70 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo BUY Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $70 4d
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $26 8d
Game Handicap: FEC (-1.5) vs mCon esports (+1.5) BUY Frites Esports Club 100¢ $50 11d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 11d
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Titan Esports Club (BO1) - CN Leag BUY EDward Gaming 100¢ $33 12d
CDOriente Petrolero vs. Club Blooming: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $19 17d
Spread: Club Blooming (-2.5) BUY CDOriente Petrolero 100¢ $19 17d
CDOriente Petrolero vs. Club Blooming: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 17d
CDOriente Petrolero vs. Club Blooming: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $19 17d
CDOriente Petrolero vs. Club Blooming: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $19 17d
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) BUY Natus Vincere 100¢ $70 18d
Dota 2: NS Club vs by Owl Club - Game 2 Winner BUY by Owl Club 100¢ $70 21d
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs TPaBoMaH Club - Game 2 Winner BUY TPaBoMaH Club 100¢ $69 22d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Magic - Game 1 Winner BUY Verso Time 100¢ $70 22d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY ex-HEROIC 100¢ $70 22d
Valorant: Grizzly Gang vs LYON - Map 2 Winner BUY LYON 100¢ $32 22d
Valorant: Xipto Esports vs 555 (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Group A BUY 555 100¢ $70 26d
Map Handicap: Kinoa (-1.5) vs MASQ (+1.5) BUY Kinoa 100¢ $70 26d
Counter-Strike: Kinoa vs MASQ - Map 2 Winner BUY Kinoa 100¢ $70 26d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Cyber Hero (BO3) - MLBB Continental BUY Magic 100¢ $70 32d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 32d
Call of Duty: Huntsmen vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 100¢ $70 32d
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $26 33d
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $70 33d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs ONIC - Game 2 Winner BUY ONIC 100¢ $70 33d
First Blood in Game 1? BUY HANJIN BRION 100¢ $28 33d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay - Map 2 Winner BUY Eternal Fire Academy 100¢ $51 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.32 · official $98.32 (match) · 1077 history records