Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9320…045a crypto 517 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$519 (-9%) realized −$527 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%185W / 330L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$51
sports 33% −$152
other 12% +$512
world 7% −$37
weather 2% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -18.6% -26.3% 50% 50% +1.6%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 44% -2.9%
≤90d 353 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 24% -2.1%
all 515 -7.1% -16.0% 36% 29% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 29% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 22% -15.4%
15% -31.3% 18% -23.6%
20% -38.1% 14% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$527
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses185 / 330
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions4
Markets (closed)515 / 517
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 56¢ 68¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne Jun 25 $10 −$7 -65%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $51 +$14 +28%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $61 −$8 -12%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $26 +$30 +116%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $77 +$130 +168%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $128 −$128 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $51 +$37 +72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $25 −$5 -21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $50 −$47 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 25 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $60 −$21 -34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $25 −$25 -100%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $61 +$1 +2%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $77 +$158 +205%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. May 19 $26 −$26 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $52 −$52 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $51 +$33 +64%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 11 $62 −$62 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $25 +$1 +4%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 09 $26 −$26 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 09 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 09 $10 −$2 -16%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 07 $10 +$16 +159%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 06 $26 +$21 +81%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. New May 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere May 05 $2 $0 -4%
Wuxi: Jason Jung vs Andre Ilagan May 05 $2 $0 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 05 $6 $0 +5%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $10 −$2 -17%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 05 $26 +$12 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 05 $3 −$1 -28%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 May 05 $1 $0 -28%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $15 $0 +3%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 04 $2 +$2 +77%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 04 $14 −$3 -19%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $4 −$1 -28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Taylor Townsend vs Rebecca May 04 $8 $0 -5%
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Najmah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 May 04 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $51 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne SELL No 28¢ $4 19h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 77¢ $51 23h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 51¢ $11 16d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $26 16d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $10 18d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ne BUY No 76¢ $10 18d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 46¢ $43 18d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $51 19d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $26 23d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics SELL New York Yankees 96¢ $164 25d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $52 25d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 70¢ $44 25d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 39¢ $26 25d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 38¢ $51 25d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 37¢ $51 25d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY No 46¢ $10 26d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $26 26d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $51 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $20 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $25 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? SELL No $3 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $5 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $40 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 11¢ $25 33d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 10¢ $25 33d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 25¢ $25 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $35 34d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $62 34d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 15¢ $10 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.33 · official $70.33 (match) · 3500 history records