Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x931d…8842 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2
other 31% −$1
politics 13% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 6 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -8.9%
all 21 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage448d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 +$2 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 -14%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 24 $3 $0 +8%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 23 $7 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $34 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $10 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $8 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $3 16d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 358d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 372d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $8 375d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $8 375d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $8 378d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1 385d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $2 402d
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? SELL Yes 98¢ $9 416d
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 417d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio SELL No 20¢ $2 417d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio SELL No 20¢ $7 417d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio SELL No 20¢ $0 417d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio BUY No 20¢ $2 417d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records