Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
93 0x931d…774a other 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,193 (-1%) realized −$1,193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%35W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$841now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$21
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$56
politics 38% −$60
sports 10% −$1,044
culture 4% −$6
crypto 2% +$2
economics 1% +$2
tech 1% −$3
finance 1% +$1
world 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -1.4% -10.8% 5% 0% -10.8%
all 146 +3.8% -6.1% 24% 13% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 13% -10.3%
10% -15.1% 13% -18.9%
15% -23.3% 12% -26.8%
20% -30.8% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,284) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$841
Realized−$1,193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses35 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage155d
Avg bet$909
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $841 $841 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,579 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $960 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,964 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,796 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,334 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,856 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,641 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $522 +$1 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,601 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $814 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $730 +$1 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,323 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $434 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 21 $447 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $458 −$2 -0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont Apr 21 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $2,415 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3,213 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $3,897 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $5,321 −$5 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,426 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,429 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $478 2h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $478 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $841 30h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,015 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $958 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $960 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,301 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,303 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,118 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,120 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $719 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $720 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,392 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,395 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,332 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,334 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,395 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,396 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,393 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,395 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $819 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $841.14 · official $841.14 (match) · 463 history records