Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x931c…a002 crypto 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$56,815 (+210%) realized +$57,255 · open −$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%110W / 501L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day196.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$17,941
other 13% −$1,439
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 420 -32.9% -39.3% 13% 13% -43.8%
≤30d 611 -8.5% -17.2% 18% 18% -24.3%
≤90d 611 -8.5% -17.2% 18% 18% -24.3%
all 611 -8.5% -17.2% 18% 18% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 18% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 18% -31.5%
15% -32.4% 18% -38.2%
20% -39.0% 18% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +81% → late -97% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$80 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2,425
Realized+$57,255
Unrealized−$440
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses110 / 501
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)611 / 357
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day196.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,030 $1,576 −$454 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $720 $723 +$3 (+0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $114 $126 +$11 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $156 −$156 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $570 −$570 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $173 −$173 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $298 −$298 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $141 −$141 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $75 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $75 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,424.52 · official $2,427.36 (match) · 3500 history records