Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
93 0x931b…cb60 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+2%) realized +$38 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$61
sports 15% −$91
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 53% -3.5%
≤30d 34 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 53% -3.5%
≤90d 34 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 53% -3.5%
all 36 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 53% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 53% -11.1%
10% -23.6% 36% -19.6%
15% -31.0% 31% -27.3%
20% -37.8% 22% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage310d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance France 89¢ 88¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance Cabo Verde 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$15 +76%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $35 +$13 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $40 −$40 -99%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $115 +$15 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $214 +$59 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 +$22 +250%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$27 +261%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 $0 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $194 +$51 +26%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $71 +$27 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $81 +$44 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $94 +$42 +45%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-23? Aug 23 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-23? Aug 23 $97 +$64 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 1h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance BUY France 89¢ $30 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 65¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance BUY France 89¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $20 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $15 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance BUY Cabo Verde 9¢ $1 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $20 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $10 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.54 · official $163.54 (match) · 105 history records