Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x931a…4e00
crypto · 207 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$314 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses121 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)206 / 207
History coverage31d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$803
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Up 45¢ 55¢ $50 $60 +$11 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Up 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $78 +$30 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$92 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $79 +$32 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $93 −$91 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $178 −$172 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $285 +$52 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$32 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $141 −$138 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $116 −$73 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $74 +$37 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $252 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$35 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $67 +$45 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $192 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $92 −$64 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $262 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $89 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $98 −$74 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$30 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$327 +3116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $155 +$69 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $157 −$152 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $165 +$57 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $173 +$54 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $193 −$45 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $257 +$90 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $218 +$42 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $154 +$35 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $93 +$22 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $207 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $184 +$31 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $75 +$34 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $99 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $205 +$18 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $33 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $80 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 41% -12.9%
≤30d 204 +1.5% -8.2% 59% 44% -9.8%
≤90d 206 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 43% -9.8%
all 206 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 43% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 43% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 30% -18.4%
15% -25.0% 13% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.28 · official $60.49 (match) · 1421 history records