Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x931a…1f6c crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$280 (-78%) realized −$265 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$180
crypto 30% −$87
economics 10% −$15
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -35.1% -41.3% 25% 25% -92.9%
all 4 -35.1% -41.3% 25% 25% -92.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 25% -92.9%
10% -46.9% 25% -93.6%
15% -52.1% 25% -94.2%
20% -56.8% 25% -94.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$90 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$265
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage73d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 27 $106 −$91 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 24 $3 +$4 +145%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.52 · official $35.52 (match) · 16 history records