Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x931a…24af other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 219L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$35
sports 24% −$21
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$4
culture 5% −$2
crypto 5% $0
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $369 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $952 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $638 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $357 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $240 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $351 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $225 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $316 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $304 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $480 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $362 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $68 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 3h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 5h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 9h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 10h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 15h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 19h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 25h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 28h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 29h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 37h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 38h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 40h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 42h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 43h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 44h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.44 · official $59.44 (match) · 1281 history records