Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9319…0bfa other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,567 (-17%) realized −$1,693 · open −$874
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,148per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3,873
30 days−$3,873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$6,147
other 40% +$3,541
crypto 4% −$296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -88.7% -89.8% 0% 0% -74.8%
≤90d 11 +31.8% +19.2% 64% 55% -23.3%
all 11 +31.8% +19.2% 64% 55% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.2% 55% -23.3%
10% +7.8% 55% -30.7%
15% -2.6% 45% -37.4%
20% -12.2% 36% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$600 vs −$1,558 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized−$1,693
Unrealized−$874
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,148
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $1,259 $393 −$866 (-69%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $333 $326 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $4,414 −$2,923 -66%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $297 −$297 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $653 −$653 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $2,694 −$2,359 -88%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,044 +$1,504 +144%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,019 +$336 +33%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $263 +$649 +247%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $511 +$204 +40%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $105 +$181 +173%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,998 +$1,327 +66%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 23 $300 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $1 5m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $5 7m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $10 17m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $51 21m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $1 23m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $15 36m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $2 37m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $36 43m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $3 45m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $2 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $210 1h
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY Yes 40¢ $1,282 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $653 13d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,492 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $297 22d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $4,414 31d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $335 31d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,694 49d
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 99¢ $2,548 56d
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 100¢ $1,355 56d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 100¢ $912 56d
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 99¢ $716 56d
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 99¢ $285 56d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL No 99¢ $3,325 56d
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 69¢ $511 56d
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 39¢ $1,044 56d
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 74¢ $1,019 56d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 60¢ $247 57d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 27¢ $263 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $719.01 · official $719.11 (match) · 46 history records