Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
93 0x9318…4f68 crypto 1787 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$132 (+5%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%567W / 1210L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$32
14 days−$29
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$111
other 1% −$18
tech 1% −$10
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -52.8% -57.3% 10% 10% -55.5%
≤30d 193 -13.9% -22.1% 18% 17% -29.7%
≤90d 1333 +6.1% -4.0% 24% 24% -8.4%
all 1777 +5.5% -4.5% 32% 32% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 32% -7.0%
10% -13.7% 22% -15.9%
15% -22.0% 18% -24.0%
20% -29.7% 17% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses567 / 1210
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1777 / 1787
History coverage111d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1777 Trades
no open positions (499 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +431%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.56 · official $5.56 (match) · 3081 history records