Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
93 0x9318…22b8 sports 672 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$244 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%301W / 367L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$588
7 days+$1,167
14 days+$1,690
30 days+$1,758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$33
other 8% −$57
crypto 0% −$24
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +36.3% +23.3% 67% 67% +30.5%
≤30d 168 +5.7% -4.3% 54% 53% +4.1%
≤90d 314 -7.2% -16.1% 48% 47% -7.9%
all 668 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 45% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 45% -10.2%
10% -25.7% 45% -18.8%
15% -32.9% 44% -26.6%
20% -39.5% 42% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$37 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses301 / 367
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions2
Markets (closed)668 / 672
History coverage224d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 58¢ 88¢ $200 $305 +$105 (+53%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 48¢ 100¢ $49 $103 +$54 (+108%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 350 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $203 +$273 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $270 +$205 +76%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $101 +$110 +109%
Map Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs ARETE (+1.5) Jun 19 $75 +$101 +134%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $233 +$245 +105%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $97 +$102 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $98 +$81 +83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$101 +100%
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $98 −$97 -99%
Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$79 +198%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $127 +$58 +46%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $99 +$132 +134%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $203 +$142 +70%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $143 −$140 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $137 +$128 +93%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $149 +$113 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $99 +$127 +129%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $139 +$238 +170%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $77 −$76 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$60 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $63 −$62 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $302 +$144 +48%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $148 −$146 -99%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 13 $98 −$97 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $194 −$191 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $81 +$100 +124%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $65 +$66 +101%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $191 −$188 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $115 +$136 +119%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $92 +$123 +134%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $34 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $96 −$95 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $99 +$89 +90%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $123 −$121 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $128 +$195 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $149 +$109 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$119 +119%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $98 −$97 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $101 −$99 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $117 −$115 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $203 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $203 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 32¢ $92 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $270 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $101 2d
Map Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs ARETE (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $75 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY FURIA 48¢ $97 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $233 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $72 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $81 3d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY FURIA 51¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $98 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $102 3d
Valorant: X-CAST vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 67¢ $98 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $55 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $98 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $15 4d
Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) BUY ONSIDE GAMING 33¢ $40 4d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $231 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $127 5d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $99 5d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $143 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $203 6d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 33¢ $66 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $137 6d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 57¢ $20 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 56¢ $129 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $99 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.12 · official $498.12 · 1072 history records