Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9317…5a5f
crypto · 252 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$456 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$457 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$241
Realized−$457
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses112 / 140
Open positions19
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage5d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day611.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 252 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$457
14 days−$457
30 days−$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+9%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 74¢ 69¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 77¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 65¢ 79¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 96¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 83¢ 85¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 48¢ 80¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+67%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? No 74¢ 65¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 59¢ 15¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $85 +$70 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $106 +$86 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$71 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$12 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$65 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $80 −$23 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $84 +$69 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $82 +$43 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $90 +$55 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$61 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $140 +$86 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$63 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $67 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $92 +$57 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$49 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $79 +$48 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $59 +$15 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$490
other 2% +$8
tech 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 42% -13.2%
≤30d 252 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 42% -13.2%
≤90d 252 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 42% -13.2%
all 252 -2.7% -11.9% 44% 42% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover611.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 42% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 40% -21.5%
15% -28.1% 38% -29.1%
20% -35.1% 35% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.02 · official $241.03 (match) · 3500 history records