Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9316…ef7a
crypto · 18 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$22 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$25 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$16 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$22
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 25% -17.6%
≤30d 16 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 25% -17.6%
≤90d 16 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 25% -17.6%
all 16 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 25% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 25% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 19% -25.5%
15% -31.7% 12% -32.7%
20% -38.4% 12% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.82 · official $1.82 (match) · 115 history records