Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
93 0x9315…afc1 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$159 (+20%) realized +$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$152
other 13% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.8% +8.4% 100% 80% +8.6%
≤30d 5 +19.8% +8.4% 100% 80% +8.6%
≤90d 5 +19.8% +8.4% 100% 80% +8.6%
all 5 +19.8% +8.4% 100% 80% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 80% +8.6%
10% -2.0% 40% -1.8%
15% -11.5% 0% -11.2%
20% -20.1% 0% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$7 +7%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $153 +$49 +32%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 +$24 +23%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $237 +$39 +17%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $197 +$40 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 84¢ $109 19m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $201 20m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $153 31m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 31m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $102 51m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $277 52m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $237 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $237 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $197 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records