Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

93
0x9311…29c1
sports · 242 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$164 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$131 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses112 / 114
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 242
History coverage586d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 226 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$41
14 days+$53
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 85¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$8 (+51%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$2 -14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$50 -199%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +652%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $65 +$66 +101%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $14 +$36 +263%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $35 +$10 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $17 +$9 +55%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $41 +$57 +140%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $106 +$162 +153%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $25 +$6 +25%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $51 +$47 +94%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $71 +$18 +25%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $50 −$2 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: FOKUS vs REBORN (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B May 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $31 +$27 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 19 $26 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 19 $53 −$53 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $99 −$35 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $118 +$127 +107%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $62 +$74 +120%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $7 $0 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $11 $0 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $18 −$2 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants - W May 10 $25 +$25 +97%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 40% +$8
other 23% −$86
crypto 17% −$67
finance 9% +$266
politics 8% +$49
world 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 49¢ $13 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Nethe BUY 44¢ $15 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 44¢ $16 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 6¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $9 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 32¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 49¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $131 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 21¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 7¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY 14¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $15 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +33.8% +21.0% 47% 47% +9.6%
≤30d 40 +14.9% +4.0% 48% 45% +12.8%
≤90d 97 +20.6% +9.1% 47% 41% -7.0%
all 226 +20.5% +9.1% 50% 43% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 43% -8.5%
10% -1.4% 37% -17.2%
15% -10.9% 32% -25.2%
20% -19.6% 28% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.61 · official $88.11 · 1107 history records