Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
93 0x930c…4836 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$2
world 17% $0
other 3% −$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 9 -5.9% -14.9% 11% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -10.1%
10% -23.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage244d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 17 $15 −$5 -34%
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? Dec 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 2h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 3h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 4h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 6h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 8h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 12h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 13h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 186d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 186d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $19 199d
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 212d
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $19 223d
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $49 243d
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $49 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.12 · official $15.12 (match) · 22 history records