Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x930a…e30b crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -38.0% -43.9% 21% 21% -56.4%
≤30d 34 -38.0% -43.9% 21% 21% -56.4%
≤90d 34 -38.0% -43.9% 21% 21% -56.4%
all 34 -38.0% -43.9% 21% 21% -56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 21% -56.4%
10% -49.2% 21% -60.6%
15% -54.1% 18% -64.4%
20% -58.6% 18% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage31d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$15 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $79 −$35 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$101 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$26 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$51 +484%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $11 28m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $29 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $16 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $28 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records