Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9304…3eba sports 16 markets active 14h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$112 (-35%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-68.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -65.5% -68.8% 12% 12% -42.4%
≤30d 16 -65.5% -68.8% 12% 12% -42.4%
≤90d 16 -65.5% -68.8% 12% 12% -42.4%
all 16 -65.5% -68.8% 12% 12% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.8% 12% -42.4%
10% -71.8% 12% -47.9%
15% -74.5% 12% -52.9%
20% -77.0% 12% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$12 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $45 −$8 -18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $49 −$2 -5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $38 +$32 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $27 +$25 +92%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $37 13h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 41¢ $11 31h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $45 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $17 32h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $47 39h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $7 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $9 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $10 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $38 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $6 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $23 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 50¢ $14 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $6 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $7 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $21 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $28 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $12 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $49 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records