Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9304…a781 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-10%) realized −$82 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day84.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$95
other 4% $0
world 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 28% -20.3%
≤30d 72 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 28% -20.3%
≤90d 72 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 28% -20.3%
all 72 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 28% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 28% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 28% -27.9%
15% -44.7% 24% -34.9%
20% -50.1% 21% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)72 / 81
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day84.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $161 +$62 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $114 +$73 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $36 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $36 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $28 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $40 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $46 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $183 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $168 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.66 · official $73.66 (match) · 199 history records