Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

93 0x9303…9659 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$160 (-42%) realized −$159 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%4W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$20

7 days−$97

14 days−$164

30 days−$164

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-55.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-43.9%	-49.2%	29%	29%	-48.3%
≤30d	16	-50.9%	-55.6%	25%	25%	-60.2%
≤90d	16	-50.9%	-55.6%	25%	25%	-60.2%
all	16	-50.9%	-55.6%	25%	25%	-60.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-55.6%	25%	-60.2%
10%	-59.8%	19%	-64.0%
15%	-63.7%	19%	-67.5%
20%	-67.3%	19%	-70.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -51% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -71% → late -31% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.24 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$83

Realized−$159

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses4 / 12

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage8d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	61¢	60¢	$57	$57	−$0 (-1%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Washington Nationals	47¢	46¢	$26	$26	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics	Jun 19	$26	−$26	-100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners	Jun 18	$41	+$6	+14%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics	Jun 17	$15	+$19	+124%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics	Jun 16	$19	−$19	-100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Jun 16	$7	−$7	-100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	Jun 16	$16	−$16	-100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros	Jun 16	$15	+$17	+114%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Jun 14	$9	−$9	-100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians	Jun 13	$7	+$10	+134%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets	Jun 13	$30	−$30	-100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals	Jun 13	$12	−$12	-100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins	Jun 12	$45	−$45	-100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 12	$22	−$22	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers	BUY Texas Rangers	61¢	$58	1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays	BUY Washington Nationals	47¢	$27	2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners	BUY Seattle Mariners	57¢	$27	25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics	BUY Los Angeles Angels	45¢	$12	28h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics	BUY Los Angeles Angels	45¢	$14	29h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners	BUY Baltimore Orioles	43¢	$14	29h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros	BUY Detroit Tigers	39¢	$10	2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics	BUY Pittsburgh Pirates	44¢	$15	2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies	BUY Miami Marlins	35¢	$7	4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros	BUY Detroit Tigers	46¢	$15	4d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY New York Mets	45¢	$16	4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics	BUY Pittsburgh Pirates	47¢	$19	4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Chicago White Sox	36¢	$4	6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	49¢	$9	6d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians	BUY Cleveland Guardians	42¢	$7	6d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY Kansas City Royals	49¢	$12	6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets	BUY Atlanta Braves	49¢	$14	7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets	BUY Atlanta Braves	49¢	$16	7d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles	BUY San Diego Padres	44¢	$15	7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins	BUY Arizona Diamondbacks	48¢	$20	8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins	BUY Arizona Diamondbacks	48¢	$25	8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	BUY Golden Knights	42¢	$22	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.92 · official $82.92 (match) · 38 history records