Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
93 0x9301…3b67 crypto 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,586 (+1%) realized +$5,330 · open +$3,256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate59%154W / 108L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$2,978per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$106,551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,895
7 days−$8,760
14 days−$16,075
30 days−$10,963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$10,211
crypto 20% +$5,502
world 19% +$1,391
finance 9% +$2,204
economics 2% +$34
sports 1% +$20
politics 0% +$4
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -84.8% -86.2% 12% 4% -39.2%
≤30d 107 -40.7% -46.4% 42% 20% -12.9%
≤90d 262 -20.7% -28.2% 59% 26% -8.4%
all 262 -20.7% -28.2% 59% 26% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 26% -8.4%
10% -35.1% 21% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -41.4% 18% -25.2%
20% -47.1% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$204 vs −$224 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$106,551
Realized+$5,330
Unrealized+$3,256
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses154 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions34
Markets (closed)262 / 245
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$2,978
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $25,899 $26,053 +$154 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $17,975 $18,344 +$368 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $8,291 $8,325 +$34 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 81¢ 99¢ $6,097 $7,399 +$1,302 (+21%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $6,995 $7,200 +$205 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $6,934 $7,019 +$85 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $3,680 $3,994 +$314 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $3,207 $3,496 +$289 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,415 $3,495 +$79 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 91¢ 100¢ $2,843 $3,121 +$279 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,043 $3,082 +$39 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,990 $1,999 +$9 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,988 $1,999 +$11 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,862 $1,873 +$11 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,685 $1,719 +$34 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,388 $1,407 +$18 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $995 $998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $997 $996 −$1 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $689 $694 +$5 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $592 $599 +$7 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $494 $499 +$5 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $490 $499 +$10 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $491 $498 +$7 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $416 $419 +$3 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $193 $197 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $327 −$327 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $459 −$459 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Jun 27 $4,881 −$4,881 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $79 +$58 +73%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? Jun 27 $387 −$387 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $482 −$473 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $44 +$9 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $459 31m
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 100¢ $176 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $13 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $23 2h
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY No 99¢ $89 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 2h
Will Lance Stroll finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 100¢ $150 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $89 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $74 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $57 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $47 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $43 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $69 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $64 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $61 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $56 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106,550.67 · official $106,550.55 (match) · 3500 history records