Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
93 0x9300…a7ea crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%51W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$4
tech 5% $0
sports 1% −$7
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 66 -1.0% -10.4% 77% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses51 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage512d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? Jun 03 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Mar 24 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? Mar 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of t Mar 01 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on February 17? Feb 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jack Dorsey confirm he is Satoshi before May? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will another team win the Serie A? Mar 10 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $111 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $111 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $111 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $110 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $110 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $110 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $110 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $110 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $110 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $110 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $110 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $110 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $110 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $110 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $109 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $109 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $109 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $109 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $109 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $109 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $109 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $109 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $109 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $108 106d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 100¢ $108 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $108 113d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? BUY No 100¢ $108 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $108 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 19? BUY No 100¢ $108 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.01 · official $111.01 (match) · 144 history records