Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92ff…fbb2 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 43% -25.2%
≤30d 21 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 43% -25.2%
≤90d 46 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 39% -22.9%
all 46 -14.8% -22.9% 46% 39% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 39% -22.9%
10% -30.3% 33% -30.3%
15% -37.0% 30% -37.0%
20% -43.2% 26% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage39d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? No 49¢ 42¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$43 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$27 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $81 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 15 $31 +$65 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 15 $62 −$40 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 15 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 15 $31 +$30 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 15 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 15 $36 +$46 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 15 $51 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 15 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29? BUY No 49¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.09 · official $9.09 (match) · 140 history records