Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
92 0x92fb…0b15 sports 96 markets active 4d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+8%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 50L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$31
other 17% −$10
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -42.8% -48.2% 50% 50% -48.1%
≤30d 96 +4.7% -5.3% 48% 48% -2.6%
≤90d 96 +4.7% -5.3% 48% 48% -2.6%
all 96 +4.7% -5.3% 48% 48% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 48% -2.6%
10% -14.4% 45% -12.0%
15% -22.6% 45% -20.5%
20% -30.2% 44% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 50
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $2 +$2 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Tokushima Vortis win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Beatriz Haddad Ma Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $10 +$12 +114%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$5 -49%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 +$4 +86%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +83%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 05 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $5 +$3 +60%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $5 +$6 +118%
ITF Caserta: Gabriela Ce vs Federica Urgesi Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Birmingham: Tatjana Maria vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Giles Hussey Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 04 $5 +$4 +70%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 04 $5 +$4 +82%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $5 +$4 +83%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $2 +$5 +249%
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $2 +$2 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 31 $2 +$2 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $2 +$2 +109%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lukas Neumayer May 30 $2 +$2 +105%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lola Radivojevic vs Martha Matoula May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 30 $3 +$2 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lisa Zaar vs Laura Samson May 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 +$2 +113%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Luca Nardi May 29 $2 +$2 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $3 −$1 -22%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Panathinaikos vs. PAOK May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 6d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 39¢ $2 7d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 64¢ $2 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $2 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $5 9d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 61¢ $5 10d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 10d
Will Tokushima Vortis win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 10d
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 10d
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 10d
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 10d
Will Tokushima Vortis win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 10d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Beatriz Haddad Ma BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 60¢ $5 10d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 56¢ $0 10d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $5 10d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 56¢ $5 10d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 58¢ $5 10d
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan BUY Karl Poling 37¢ $5 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 42¢ $5 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 46¢ $10 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $10 11d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 53¢ $5 11d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Spurs 27¢ $2 12d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 12d
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Francisca Jorge 55¢ $5 12d
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana SELL Mary Stoiana 100¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records