Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
92 0x92fa…7d02 crypto 220 markets active 2h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,009 (-42%) realized −$11,009 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%38W / 175L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days−$181
14 days−$432
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$3,272
sports 22% −$1,343
crypto 17% −$3,303
politics 8% −$1,560
tech 5% −$1,188
economics 3% −$307
world 1% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.8% -25.7% 20% 20% -39.6%
≤30d 52 +2.6% -7.2% 15% 15% -34.7%
≤90d 87 -30.1% -36.7% 11% 11% -61.9%
all 213 -31.9% -38.4% 18% 18% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 18% -48.5%
10% -44.3% 17% -53.5%
15% -49.7% 17% -58.0%
20% -54.6% 17% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$89 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,009
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses38 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 220
History coverage366d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$44 +283%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $64 +$212 +328%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $276 −$248 -90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $237 −$228 -96%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $146 −$23 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $39 −$39 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 31 $42 −$42 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $20 +$112 +552%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 31 $0 +$1 +900%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $37 −$37 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 31 $42 +$43 +102%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 31 $24 +$76 +310%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 31 $6 +$104 +1788%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $17 −$17 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $49 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06 BUY 12¢ $26 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 1¢ $0 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng BUY 6¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $14 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Will F BUY 3¢ $0 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 2¢ $51 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 2¢ $0 7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $28 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $159 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 27¢ $65 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 7¢ $101 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1533 history records